Mafi munin lokaci donHeliumYa kamata a ƙare ƙarancin 4.0, amma idan an sami kwanciyar hankali aiki, sake farawa da haɓaka mahimman cibiyoyin jijiya a duniya kamar yadda aka tsara. Hakanan farashin wuri zai kasance mai girma a cikin ɗan gajeren lokaci.
Shekara guda na matsalolin samar da kayayyaki, matsalolin jigilar kayayyaki da hauhawar farashin haɗe da yaƙe-yaƙe da hatsarori, ƙalubalen tsarin kiwon lafiya da haɓaka buƙatun semiconductor sun haifar da ingantacciyar guguwa ga masu aiki na helium. A ranar bude taron MENA Industrial Gases 2022 a Abu Dhabi, bayyanannen sako daga helium na duniya da kuma rawar da yankin MENA ke da shi a cikin sarkar samar da kayayyaki shine cewa akwai wasu dalilai na fata - ko ta hanyar sabbin kayayyaki ko sake yin amfani da iya aiki da kasuwanni. bunkasa.
Theheliumkasuwa ta fuskanci matsin lamba da ba a taba ganin irinsa ba, musamman saboda fashewar iskar gas a babban kamfanin Gazprom na New Amur. Idan ta murmure a wannan shekara (2023), tana da yuwuwar ba da gudummawa mai mahimmanci don samarwa da taimakawa matsakaicin farashin.
A zahiri, a cewar Phil Kornbluth, aikin sarrafa iskar gas na Gazprom-Amur zai zama babban abin da ke shafarheliumkasuwa nan da shekaru hudu masu zuwa. Kornbluth ya ce sauran abubuwan da ke haifar da karancin Helium 4.0 sun hada da rashin aikin samar da danyen helium na BLM, da shirin kula da shi a Qatar, da karkatar da iskar gas daga Algeria wani bangare na samar da LNG, bututun karkashin ruwa zuwa Turai saboda rikicin Ukraine, da kuma kwanan nan Ostiraliya. Ciyar da iskar gas a masana'antar Darwin da gobara a cibiyar sarrafa iskar gas na Haven KS. Madaidaicin haɓakar buƙatu na kusan 2-4%, wanda sabon ginin fab ɗin ke motsawa, da na'urorin lantarki da ke mamaye MRI a matsayin babban aikace-aikacen - haɓakar buƙatu kaɗan kawai zai ci gaba.
Daga tsakiyar watan Janairu zuwa tsakiyar watan Yuni, danyen maiheliumƘaddamar da sashin haɓakawa (CHEU) a Ofishin Gudanar da Ƙasa na Amurka (BLM) ya rage yawan wadatar danyen helium, yana rage yawan iskar gas zuwa maɓalli huɗu.heliumtsire-tsire masu shaye-shaye, wanda ya haifar da kiyasin 10% ana cire wadatar duniya daga kasuwa. Idan BLM zai iya ci gaba da aiki a hankali, mafi munin gaHeliumYa kamata ƙarancin 4.0 ya ƙare kuma 2023 na iya zama shekarar canji zuwa wadataccen wadata, amma duk ya dogara da lokaci da sikelin samar da Amur. "
Za a iya samun wasuheliumsamarwa a Amur farawa a tsakiyar 2023, amma har yanzu akwai rashin tabbas da yawa game da waɗannan kwanakin. Tabbas, lokacin sake farawa yana jinkiri ta hanyar yakin Ukraine, kuma saboda takunkumin, dabaru na kayayyaki ko kwantena na jigilar kaya zuwa kuma daga Amur zai zama mafi wahala. "
Kornbluth ya ce farashin kwangilar zai ci gaba da hauhawa sosai, sakamakon hauhawar farashin kayayyaki daga Qatar da ExxonMobil, kuma farashin tabo zai ci gaba da hauhawa. Hasashen ya sake yin duhu sosai a cikin ƴan shekaru masu zuwa kuma ya dogara sosai kan kwanciyar hankali 2023. An sake mayar da hankali kan lokacin da Amur shuka zai sake buɗewa. Ya kamata farashi ya sauƙaƙa lokacin da samar da Amur ya shiga kasuwa kuma ya kamata wadata ya wadata a cikin 2024, amma idan aka yi la'akari da rashin tabbas game da takunkumin Ukraine da Rasha wannan ya yi nisa da tabbataccen abu,
Dangane da hangen nesa, Kornbluth ya ba da ƙarin cikakkun bayanai game da yuwuwar sabunta ayyukan da abubuwan kasuwa waɗanda zasu iya tasiri ga duniyaheliumkasuwanci a cikin 2023 kuma a ƙarshe ya ƙare ƙarancin Helium 4.0.
Kamfanin Man Fetur na Irkutsk yana fara sabon masana'antar Yaraktinsky. Ita ce tsiron cubic ƙafa miliyan 250 a kowace shekara. Wannan bai isa ya kawo ƙarshen ƙarancin ba lokacin da ya cika ƙarfinsa, amma zai ba da ɗan taimako. "Game da hangen nesa na kwata na farko na 2023, Gazprom yana gaya wa mutane kwanan nan cewa suna tsammanin jirgin farko na farko zai kasance a watan Afrilu kuma jirgin na biyu zai yi jinkiri na 'yan watanni. Sai dai saboda Gazprom ya ce za a kaddamar da shi a watan Afrilu, wanda hakan ba ya nufin hakan zai faru. Har zuwa lokacin, daheliumkasuwa za ta ci gaba da sayarwa. Hudu daga cikin manyan kattai biyar na helium suna rarraba kayayyaki, kodayake a wasu lokuta, tun lokacin da kashi na BLM Allocation ya karu tun lokacin da aka sake farawa CHEU. "
“Gaba ɗaya, mafi munin lokacin ƙarancin ƙila ya ƙare. Amma ya dogara da lokaci da sikelin samar da Amur. Idan Amur bai fara farawa ba, za mu sami rashi na sauran 2023. Idan Amur ya fara a watan Afrilu kuma jirgin na biyu ya zo nan da watanni biyu kuma yana gudana cikin aminci to ya kamata mu sami sauƙi daga ƙarancin.
A ƙarshe, tambayar da ake yawan yi - yaushe neHeliumKarancin 4.0 ya ƙare? Amsar wannan ita ce kyakkyawan fata, watanni 9 zuwa 12 daga yanzu. Dole ne mu sake mayar da hankali kan Amur a cikin 2023/24. Dangane da yakin Ukraine, ya zuwa yanzu ba a kebe kayyakin ruwan helium da ake fitarwa daga takunkumi. Tun daga watan Janairu, fitar da helium na Rasha ba a sanya mata takunkumi ba. Tabbas, wannan yanayin zai iya canzawa a kowane lokaci, kuma idan takunkumin ya hana abokan kwangilar Gazprom cika kwangilar su, zai iya ragewa da jinkirta tasirin Amur a kasuwannin duniya kuma ya tsawaita.HeliumKarancin 4.0 har zuwa 2024. "
Lokacin aikawa: Maris-01-2023
